Adding to the complexity of a dire supply-demand balance, aggregate production from wind has dropped below 1000MW today.
Seasonal Record of Events in the Market
Collections of events that we see happening in the NEM, categorised in terms of the seasons in which they occur.
A short review of what we named ‘Instance #2’ in the yo-yo-ing of Available Generation after Administered Prices came into effect.
The outlook continues to get worse and worse… forecast load shedding extended to NSW this evening and into QLD tomorrow as well.
A quick tabular list of the 7 cases overnight where QLD saw ‘Actual LOR2’ and/or yo-yo Available Generation
AEMO’s updated forecast for load shedding in QLD this evening is for an enormous amount (1,454MW)
Here’s one example of the steps being taken by AEMO (which would ordinarily be considered as not advisable) to match supply and demand in the NEM (and particularly the QLD region) with Administered Pricing at play.
AEMO’s now forecasting load shedding for this evening … Monday 13th June 2022
First article on Monday 13th June 2022 with QLD under Administered Pricing – looking at not only QLD but also strange outcomes everywhere else…
At 22:40 the price exceeds $10,000/MWh in NSW, VIC and SA … with QLD under Administered Pricing.
Available Generation in QLD has been quite the see-saw following the imposition of Administered Pricing on Sunday evening, 12th June 2022. This is the 3rd occasion this evening we see ‘Actual LOR2’ warning.
Volatility has ramped up in NSW, VIC, SA and TAS (particularly SA) with QLD under Administered Pricing.
Fifth article on Sunday 12th June takes a quick look at what’s on (and what’s not) in QLD this evening under AP with very tight margins.
Sunday evening 12th June in QLD and it’s getting very, very tight…
A follow-on from Administered Pricing in QLD is the start of some head-scratching market outcomes … such as this spike in South Australia.
A quick article Sunday evening as the Cumulative Price for the QLD region skyrockets ever so close to the Cumulative Price Threshold…
Recap of some transmission trips overnight in TAS … coincident with severe weather.
A Saturday afternoon initial review of what’s visible in ‘Next Day Public’ data via ez2view to look at the causes behind the unexpected 500MW drop in Available Generation capacity in the QLD region (which was one factor in the triggering of the ‘Actual LOR2’ warning from the AEMO)
A later article reviewing how Cumulative Price in Queensland has jumped upwards this evening (towards the CPT) as a result of a solid four hours above $1,000/MWh.
Price volatility has returned to the QLD region on Friday evening 10th June 2022.
Tweet at your own peril A quick mea culpa: after squinting at an ez2view layout early this morning I dashed off a tweet suggesting that six of AGL Energy’s eleven coal-fired generation units were offline – three at Bayswater, two…