Trended daily aggregate wind output since January 2010
Prompted by what I’d seen in the (daily) periodic cycling of aggregate wind production recently, I took more of a look at what’s been apparent over time.
Long-Term Market trends and forecasts
What’s been happening with Bald Hills Wind Farm
A brief look at what’s been happening at Bald Hills Wind Farm – over the 18 months since January 2019, but most particularly in the past couple weeks where output has dropped down near zero.
Balancing Supply and Demand …. in the fast approaching ‘NEM 2.0’ world
Recent invitations (from COAG Energy Council and AEMO) prompt some further analysis of the data set assembled for the GSD2019 in order to understand more about one of the challenges in balancing Supply and Demand in the NEM 2.0 world.
AEMO releases its first* ‘Renewable Integration Study’ on 30th April 2020
An article today providing links to the ‘Renewable Integration Study’ which the AEMO released today, and also to the headline media coverage I have seen on my quick scan this morning.
Two papers released by COAG Energy Council are early stages in fleshing out ‘NEM 2.0’
Some brief initial thoughts, following the release of two discussion papers by the COAG Energy Council – the first on two-sided markets, and the second seeming to cover two different challenges (forward markets, and ‘Keeping the Lights on Services’).
Observing Easter Saturday, a little belatedly
Guest author, Allan O’Neil, invests some time to explore a number of different aspects of Easter Saturday (11th April 2020), each noteworthy in their own right (including low demand, high percentage share renewables, negative prices and dynamic bidding)
ICYMI – COAG EC flags reliability framework changes
Guest author, Allan O’Neil tries to piece together further detail of what is intended with the apparent tightening of the Reliability Standard (which has sat at 0.002% USE for many years).
Review of extremes in ‘Raw Off Target’ performance through 2019, with the Generator Statistical Digest 2019
Using the (hot off the press) Generator Statistical Digest 2019, we take a look across all 304 DUIDs to see how they performed through calendar 2019 in terms of large excesses in ‘Raw Off-Target’ in both directions. These results suggests implications for the future…
About ERM’s two rule change proposals in at the AEMC
Two earlier articles today prompt this follow-on piece, specifically focusing on what’s being requested by ERM Power in two separate rule change requests relating to the MT PASA process.
Some insights about Loy Yang A unit 1 from CAL 2019 (using a draft of the ‘B’ page from the GSD2019)
Another weekend reviewing progress on the Generator Statistical Digest 2019 (nearing completion) and I thought it would be of interest to share some insights about Loy Yang A unit 1 that jump of the sample page provided to us in yesterday’s draft.
The collapse in Queensland renewable energy investment – the canary in the coal mine
Guest author, Tristan Edis, looks particularly at the Queensland Region of the NEM, and an almost complete stop in the development of new renewables projects.
AEMO forecasts new “lowest ever” demand today in South Australia – but misses by 200MW
A quick look at what would have been a new “lowest ever” point for SA Scheduled Demand today at 12;30 … if the AEMO forecast had held to be valid.
Almost three years on – reflections on Frequency Control in the NEM
Guest author (and power system control specialist), Kate Summers, looks at what’s changed since she published a paper on frequency control in the NEM back in January 2017.
‘Duck Curve’ delivers declining Minimum Demand levels in South Australia
An email alert from NEMwatch (noting Scheduled Demand under 500MW in South Australia today) distracts us, and prompts us to dig a little deeper at the longer-term trend.
Longer-term trends of low (and high) dispatch prices in the NEM across all regions.
Our various dashboard views of the NEM (NEMwatch, ez2view and deSide) have been showing what’s seemed like increasing numbers of zero and negative prices in the NEM recently – particularly in QLD. Coupled with this we’ve seen various commentary on social media. Hence we took a more statistical look at what’s actually been changing…
AEMO releases its 2019 Electricity Statement of Opportunities – more tinder for the “energy wars” fire…
AEMO releases its Electricity Statement of Opportunities today, with an initial flurry of press coverage. Another reminder of heightened risk that the NEM is increasingly facing…
AGL Investor Presentation reports on Portfolio Availability–we take a look for key Stations
AGL released its investor presentation yesterday – several people flagged the availability stats within the presentation (they knew we were looking at aspects of reliability for our Generator Report Card 2018). Hence I take a brief detour and have a quick look.
2018 – the year fossil fuels began an inexorable decline
Guest author, Tristan Edis, takes a look at the changing pattern of generation by fuel type in 2018
Electricity demand stopped declining after 2014 (on a NEM-wide, Annual Average basis)
A comment made by TransGrid at the Energy Networks 2018 conference today jolted me to update my (somewhat) outdated paradigm of declining demand.
A selected (and evolving) chronology of the QLD Government’s involvement in the QLD Generation sector
Here’s a chronological record of key aspects of government involvement in the generation sector within Queensland.