The accelerating rise of Negative Prices in the NEM
A longer-term trend of the incidence of negative prices across each region of the NEM ... and, most interestingly, the pattern by time of day.
Long-Term Market trends and forecasts
Prior to the wider release of the GSD2020 … here’s a 10-year trend of bidding behaviour
A chart we threw together quickly at Beer O'Clock today (from the imminent release of the GSD2020) was worth sharing more broadly on WattClarity today...
Average spot prices through 2020 down at levels not seen for many years
Several conversations this week prompted me to update the long-term view of how spot prices have trended over time (in particular because average prices in 2020 were quite different than recent years).
What’s up with the fleet of 16 x coal-fired units in NSW?
Following a week where several days saw price volatility in NSW (with this being so extreme that Reserve Trader was triggered on Thursday 17th December) we've taken a look at the comparative performance of...
What’s “Primary Frequency Response” and why does it matter anyway?
Paul McArdle recently drew my attention to a short Twitter thread started by David Osmond on the arcane topic of NEM system frequency behaviour: At Paul’s invitation I’ve dived further into this issue...
With increasing diversity, the low point of instantaneous aggregate Wind Generation across the NEM is nudging away from 0MW
Patricia Boyce' challenging question coincided with the low point of cyclic wind output across the NEM this afternoon, and prompted some thinking...
AER releases proposed rule change for Semi-Scheduled generators and dispatch instructions
Following the consultation process conducted by the AER (stemming from their Issues Paper 3 months ago) the AER has today submitted a rule change request to the AEMC relating to Semi-Scheduled generation.
The (slow) decline of coal
Questions from several readers prompted this quick look at the long-term trend of coal generation.
Revenues for Wind Farms (and Solar Farms) in the NEM take a hit
A question over the weekend prompts this article, which follows from discussions to a Vestas-organised audience about revenue patterns and trends for Wind Farms in the NEM.
Extrapolating from the trend of ‘Aggregated Raw Off-Target’ results, to yield some clues to what the future might hold … and one challenge for NEM 2.0
Following on from Friday's article (which considered the AER Issues Paper) this article delves into more detail of those extremes of 'Aggregate Raw Off-Target' across all Semi-Scheduled units that have been recorded over the...
Striving to understand the underlying challenges with Semi-Scheduled generators (re AER Issues Paper)
Prompted by the recent AER Issues Paper (submissions on that due today - Friday 24th July) but also aware that I've not yet published some broader thoughts in response to the ESB's requests for...
It’s good news that time-weighted average prices for Q2 2020 are down on prior years – right?
Spurred by a number of concurrent requests I've returned to the pattern of prior analysis of Q2 prices (completed in 2016, 2017 and 2018) to look at what's changed for Q2 2020 that's just...
Trended daily aggregate wind output since January 2010
Prompted by what I'd seen in the (daily) periodic cycling of aggregate wind production recently, I took more of a look at what's been apparent over time.
What’s been happening with Bald Hills Wind Farm
A brief look at what's been happening at Bald Hills Wind Farm - over the 18 months since January 2019, but most particularly in the past couple weeks where output has dropped down near...
Balancing Supply and Demand …. in the fast approaching ‘NEM 2.0’ world
Recent invitations (from COAG Energy Council and AEMO) prompt some further analysis of the data set assembled for the GSD2019 in order to understand more about one of the challenges in balancing Supply and...
AEMO releases its first* ‘Renewable Integration Study’ on 30th April 2020
An article today providing links to the 'Renewable Integration Study' which the AEMO released today, and also to the headline media coverage I have seen on my quick scan this morning.
Two papers released by COAG Energy Council are early stages in fleshing out ‘NEM 2.0’
Some brief initial thoughts, following the release of two discussion papers by the COAG Energy Council - the first on two-sided markets, and the second seeming to cover two different challenges (forward markets, and...
Observing Easter Saturday, a little belatedly
Guest author, Allan O'Neil, invests some time to explore a number of different aspects of Easter Saturday (11th April 2020), each noteworthy in their own right (including low demand, high percentage share renewables, negative...
ICYMI – COAG EC flags reliability framework changes
Guest author, Allan O'Neil tries to piece together further detail of what is intended with the apparent tightening of the Reliability Standard (which has sat at 0.002% USE for many years).
Review of extremes in ‘Raw Off Target’ performance through 2019, with the Generator Statistical Digest 2019
Using the (hot off the press) Generator Statistical Digest 2019, we take a look across all 304 DUIDs to see how they performed through calendar 2019 in terms of large excesses in 'Raw Off-Target'...