AGL’s successful completion of the first two-shifting trial for Bayswater unit 4 (on 7th September 2024)
An update on LinkedIn from Len McLachlan from AGL Energy about a recent trial of two-shifting at Bayswater unit 4 prompts a quick look.
Need for Firming Capacity
A collection of articles being published on WattClarity over time that analyse and comment on the ongoing (but changing) requirement in the need for firming capacity.
A number of these articles feature analysis of the metric ‘Aggregate Scheduled Target’.
Are we *still* not building enough replacement Firming Capacity?
In this third excerpt from GenInsights Quarterly Updates for 2024 Q2, we share some perspectives about the amount of Firming Capacity projected to be delivered in net terms, to 2028 (given some withdrawals and some additions).
(Update of) long-term trends of (the high points of) Aggregate Scheduled Target
In this second excerpt from GenInsights Quarterly Updates for 2024 Q2, we share (some of) the updated analysis completed of Aggregate Scheduled Target (a metric that points to the requirement for Firming Capacity).
A tale of two mega-projects: Project Energy Connect and Snowy 2.0 timelines (Part 2)
In the second half of this two-part case study we look at a timeline of the Snowy 2.0 project, and discuss the history of mega-projects in the NEM.
Tamar Valley CCGT switches off on Tue 23rd July (after running for almost 7 weeks straight)
A quick record of Tamar Valley CCGT coming offline yesterday (Tue 23rd July 2024) after 40 days of solid operations through a low-rain and low-wind winter in Tasmania.
A tale of two mega-projects: Project Energy Connect and Snowy 2.0 timelines (Part 1)
A timeline of evolving expectations for the cost, benefits, and delivery dates for Project Energy Connect - following news of recent issues surrounding the project.
Tamar Valley CCGT clocks over 5 weeks of almost continuous operation at full load in Winter 2024 … but hydro storages still not great
Five weeks on from the re-start of production at Tamar Valley CCGT, it's still running (and water storage levels in TAS are still low).
Correlation between low wind Capacity Factor and low IRPM (NEM-wide) in recent evenings + Thursday evening looks likely to be low, as well.
Given what's happened for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday evening this week (and even tighter supply-demand balance forecast for Thursday evening) we take a look at the correlation between low IRPM and low Capacity Factor across all Wind Farms.
Tallawarra B gets a run, on Tuesday 18th June 2024
On Tuesday 18th June 2024, Tallawarra B was running for a period (after a lengthy period offline).
Gas-fired generation running more strongly in TAS (and Tamar Valley CCGT for the first time) than it has over the past 5 years
Early in June 2024 we see the Tamar Valley CCGT unit running strongly in Tasmania for the first time in just over 5 years ... part of the strongest run of gas-fired generation in TAS in a long time.
Reviewing 270 days of bidding at Tallawarra B … following news of delays
Following Colin Packham's article in the Australian, we take a look in the market data at EnergyAustralia's Tallawarra B
How predictable is the wind (a short Case Study of Thursday evening 30th May 2024)?
An (initial and) short review of the solid block of high aggregate wind yield over the ~3 day date range (late Tuesday 28th May 2024 to late Friday 31st May 2024) ... and how much this was expected in advance.
‘Another challenging week’ for VRE NEM-wide, beginning Wednesday 8th May 2024
Coincidentally today, David Osmond has posted about 'another challenging week' for VRE NEM-wide (a week beginning Wed 8th May 2024 - the day NSW hit the Cumulative Price Threshold).
The Grattan report ‘Keeping the lights on’ is worth a read
Enroute to Melbourne today for the EUAA National Conference starting tomorrow, I grabbed some flight time to have a quick read through the Grattan Institute’s latest offering – a 45-page report appropriately titled ‘Keeping the Lights on’: Quite topical that the report was released on...
Simshauser/Gilmore Working Paper speaks to challenges for gas-fired firming
A short article this morning to note about a Working Paper from CAEEPR that touches on important (and not well understood?) aspects of this energy transition, as it relates to Firming Capacity requirements.
A precis of the ‘Exploring Wind Diversity’ analysis completed in Appendix 27 of GenInsights21
Almost 2.5 years since we released GenInsights21, today we're publishing this article that contains a precis of the analysis included as Appendix 27 under the title 'Exploring Wind Diversity'.
Three recent news media articles about the replacement of (and/or short term delay to closure of) Eraring Power Station
Worth noting these three recent news articles from the past 8 days, all pertaining to the slated closure of the Eraring Power Station as early as 19th August 2025 (under 18 months away), but reporting different perspectives.
Case Study of Sunday 12th November 2023 (lowest point for Aggregate Scheduled Target in 2023)
A 2nd short article falling out of GenInsights Quarterly Updates for 2023 Q4. This one looks at Sunday 12th November 2023 and shows the lowest point in 2023 for NEM-wide Aggregate Scheduled Target (and the largest ramp in Q4).
Case Study of Friday 8th Dec 2023 (big gyrations in Aggregate Scheduled Target)
A short article looking at Friday 8th December 2023 looking at NEM-wide Aggregate Scheduled Target on the day.
A look into minimum generation levels at various coal plants, using the GSD2023
Nick Bartels from Greenview Strategic Consulting uses the GSD2023 to examine minimum and maximum generation levels at various coal and gas plants in the market.