A collation of articles published (at least in part) to assist readers understand/appreciate the complexities relating to market modelling (and/or price forecasting).
We thought it was worth separately collating these examples of how to answer the question ‘How many years of reference data are required to construct a robust model of the future?’.
The reasonable response is not to model the world as simpler than it is, but to confront its variability head-on: to treat stochastic inputs as stochastic, to plan for the distribution rather than its midpoint, and to build the margin of safety that resilience demands.
In this guest-authored article by Endgame Economics, Oliver Nunn examines growing 'noise' in NEM spot prices — how increasingly frequent oscillations appear to have a structural, intraday pattern, what may be driving it, and why it matters for market behaviour and battery investment outcomes.
Nadali Mahmoudi from EPEC Group presents a short case study to show why network-outage modelling is essential for understanding revenue opportunities, curtailment risk and long-term investment decisions.
Josh Boegheim from Powerlink discusses the limitations of perfect foresight assumptions for system planning—and shares results from a recent study that simulated energy storage dispatch using deterministic and stochastic forecasting approaches.
Oliver Nunn and his team at Endgame Economics have written this introductory three-part guide to market modelling in the NEM. This is Part 3: "Defense against the dark arts"
Oliver Nunn and his team at Endgame Economics have written this introductory three-part guide to market modelling in the NEM. This is Part 2: "Operational dispatch modelling"
Oliver Nunn and his team at Endgame Economics have written this introductory three-part guide to market modelling in the NEM. This is Part 1: "Building the Arena"
New guest author, Ryan Esplin progressively builds a more precise model of the NEMDE dispatch process to illustrate why the stylised 'Merit Order' bid stack model is increasingly not enough to explain dispatch and price outcomes in the NEM
On 16th October 2025, we posted ‘Some suggestions for the Nelson Review panel to consider (with respect to Forecasting) following review of the Draft Report’, and in that mentioned this Key Observation #6 from within GenInsights21.
I’d rather not add to the number of conspiracy theories in circulation, but I wonder if there’s a conspiracy to make understanding our electricity system in general, and its reliability in particular, as difficult as humanly possible. There’s no doubt it’s a sophisticated piece of...
The three main flaws that put boundaries on the usefulness of all forecasting/modelling
Models are simplifications of reality. Some are more precise than others. Some are useful for different purposes.