Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader triggered on 27 November, 2024, NSW
RERT has been triggered in NSW on 27 November 2024.
NSW
Actual LOR1 condition eventuates in NSW on Wednesday afternoon, 27th Nov 2024
A short post to note that an actual LOR1 condition has eventuated in NSW, as per market notice 121089.
NSW Prices spike early ahead of forecasts on afternoon of 27th November
The Energy price in NSW has already spiked to up near the MPC of $17500 as early as 14:30 NEM time.
Forecast LOR3 reappears for four hours this morning, as AEMO issue another media statement about reliability in NSW this afternoon, Nov 27th 2024
A forecast LOR3 for this afternoon reappeared in the P30 forecasts for four hours this morning, as demand forecasts for the region jumped by approximately 200MW.
AEMO issue market notice with intention to commence RERT negotiations in NSW this afternoon 27th Nov 2024
Market notice 121038 has appeared this morning, showing that the AEMO intends to commence RERT negotiations in NSW this afternoon.
NSW energy prices less volatile than anticipated on 26 November 2024
A tight supply-demand balance in NSW didn’t produce quite as much energy price volatility as projected.
AEMO responds to media coverage regarding low electricity reserves expected tomorrow, Wednesday 27th Nov 2024
The AEMO responds to media coverage warning of blackouts in NSW on Wednesday afternoon.
Forecast load shedding (i.e. LOR3) in NSW on Wednesday 27th November 2024 above 1,700 but now easing?
The outlook for load shedding in NSW on the 27th of November 2024 remains a possibility, yet recent STPASA runs indicate some movement in a positive direction is ocurring.
An updated view of outage plans for Scheduled units above 200MW in NSW and QLD
Given the tight supply-demand balance forecast for NSW and QLD this week, it’s worth revisiting the ‘Generator Outages’ widget in ez2view at 15:35 on Sunday 24th November 2024 to show what the current status is of generator outage plans
Northern NEM capacity outlook next week – a series of unfortunate events
A very quick post to look at one of the several reasons we are seeing LOR3 and LOR2 forecasts for NSW and Queensland respectively next Wednesday (27 November). Previous posts from Paul (including this one) have looked at a range…
Forecast load shedding (i.e. LOR3) in NSW on Wednesday 27th November 2024 now above 1,000MW
AEMO’s MN120879 rates special mention, given the size of largest load shedding forecast for NSW on Wednesday afternoon/evening is above 1,000MW.
AEMO now forecasting possible LOR3 (i.e. load shedding) in NSW on Wednesday 27th November 2024
The most recent ST PASA forecast now shows a sliver of forecast LOR3 (i.e. forecast Load Shedding) for the NSW region on Wed 27th Nov 2024
The forecasts for LORx in NSW on Tuesday 26th November 2024 have been dialled down considerably … why is that the case?
In the >36 hours since an article on Wednesday the forecasts for LORx on Tuesday 26th November 2024 have become less strident. We start to look at why…
Here’s a few things to watch, w.r.t. the forecast tight supply-demand balance in NSW (and QLD) for early next week
In this article on Wednesday evening 20th November 2024 we suggest a couple factors to keep an eye on, leading into the expected tight supply-demand balance (and possible load shedding) in NSW on Tuesday 26th November 2024.
It’s back! Forecast LOR3 for NSW on Monday 26th November 2024
It should be no surprise to readers that we’ve more recently slipped back below that threshold line (back into ‘forecast LOR3’ territory) in MN120725 published at 17:10 on Wed 20th Nov 2024.
AEMO notes cancellation of forecast LOR3 for NSW on Tuesday 26th November 2024
On Wednesday afternoon, the AEMO notes that the Forecast LOR3 condition (for NSW on Tuesday 26th Nov 2024) is cancelled … but only just.
AEMO updates forecast LOR3 for NSW on Tuesday 26th November 2024 (less severe)
AEMO’s latest update at 10:00 (NEM time) on Wednesday 20th November 2024 in MN120702 shows the forecast severity of LOR3 (i.e. load shedding) in NSW on Tuesday 26th Nov 2024 has dropped (but not disappeared).
AEMO publishes ‘Request for Generator Recall Information for the period from 25/11/2024 to 26/11/2024 for NSW Region’
Things are not currently* looking rosy for the NSW region early next week … so it’s no surprise to see AEMO asking (on Wednesday morning 20th Nov 2024) for generator recall information.
Updated forecast for LOR3 for Tuesday 26th November 2024 grows more severe
AEMO’s MN120671 forecast LOR3 was published at 15:33 NEM time on Tuesday 19th November 2024 – so it’s worth noting that ~7 hours later, MN120698 was published – with a deeper forecast LOR3 highlighted.
Load shedding (LOR3) projected for NSW on 26 November 2024
A LOR3 is projected for NSW on 26 November 2024.