Following AEMO’s warnings issued yesterday about possible extreme heat next week in Adelaide, Melbourne and Sydney, I take more of a look at what might transpire and compare it to historical correlations between cities.
A quick look at AEMO’s current forecasts for Friday (prompted by a few conversations externally)…
A new peak Scheduled Demand and Operational Demand in Queensland today with Scheduled Demand still over 9,100 MW after 8 PM.
Queensland experienced a new record for Scheduled Demand for electricity today – but what’s particular staggering is how late in the day it happened!
Electricity demand in Queensland today reached 9072MW in the 16:40 dispatch interval, passing 9,000MW for the first time this summer.
Yesterday (Sunday 28th January) saw electricity demand (both Scheduled and Operational) above 9,000MW in the heat. Others have noted this was the highest-ever non-working day demand in Victoria, but I have not delved in detail.
Weather forecasts tell of an expected hot weekend on Saturday (in Melbourne & Adelaide) and then Sunday (in Sydney) – which has led to some news articles talking about “searing heat across the southeast putting energy supplies under pressure”. Let’s not get carried away – it looks like the levels of demand will be pretty moderate.
A quick review of a day when NSW demand was forecast to be high
Current forecasts at AEMO show NSW demand forecast to peak above 13,500MW (which would easily be the highest December demand in NSW since 2009).
AEMO forecasts NEM-wide demand to exceed 32,000MW tomorrow (Monday 18th December), which is far higher than seen in December 2016, and one reason for the LOR1 low reserve notices.
AEMO forecasts higher demand in Victoria (and South Australia) tomorrow with the hot weather – and a slight LOR1 warning.
With hot weather forecast for NSW this Thursday (especially in inland areas) it’s no surprise to see that the AEMO is forecasting higher demand on the day. Linked to this there is also a slight negative (local) surplus generation forecast.
Final post for the day – a high demand level achieved, but not an all-time record.
3rd update today as the supply/demand balance tightens, and a transmission outage adds a complexity
Demand forecast down slightly on this morning, but still looking like a record.
An astounding day with Queensland electricity demand on a Sunday – a new peak (according to Powerlink) or not quite (on Dispatch Target basis).
Looking forward to this evening, and what looks set to be a near all-time record for QLD demand (a remarkable outcome for a Sunday)
To clarify a quotation today in the Fairfax media about solar PV performance on heatwave Friday in NSW.
Unwanted demand response in NSW approaches, for the 2nd day in a row with scorching temperatures driving demand higher.
First (and perhaps only?) post on a super-hot Saturday in NSW