Demand forecast moderating for NSW for Thursday evening, 14th December 2023
A late morning update on forecast conditions for NSW this evening, Thu 14th Dec 2023
forecast tight supply-demand balance
Forecast supply-demand for NSW for Thursday evening 14th December 2023 remains tight
An updated view of the forecast for a tight supply-demand balance for tomorrow (Thu 14th Dec 2023) in NSW.
Low reserves projected post Eraring closure… and earlier?
The results of the recent MTPASA (Medium-Term Projected Assessment of System Adequacy), published on 17 October 2023, led a declaration of low reserve conditions in Market Notice 110284.
Possible coal supply issues at Mt Piper coal-fired power station to last until the end of 2023?
A short note to echo EnergyAustralia’s warnings (reported in the Australian) about possible coal supply issues for Mt Piper power station.
NSW Government to explore option for (relatively short) extension to operations at Eraring Power Station … amongst other initiatives
Yesterday, the NSW Government released both the Marsden Jacobs report (NSW Electricity Supply and Reliability Check Up) and the Government’s Response.
The 2023 ESOO again prompts the question … ‘what’s the contingency plan’?
The 2023 ESOO contains some some reporting (and data) about one particular contingency plan … delaying retirement of existing thermal generators (with Eraring a case in point).
Here’s 7 Observations that jumped out to me in a first skim of the 2023 ESOO
Apart from a distraction early this morning, I’ve invested some hours today in review of the 2023 ESOO. Here’s 7 initial observations that jumped out at me.
With the 2023 ESOO report, different views about which USE figure should the AEMO have led with?
Here’s my view on whether Figure 2 should have preceded Figure 1 (with respect to projections of unserved energy … USE) in the 2023 ESOO.
AEMO releases 2023 ESOO on Thursday 31st August 2023 (Australia’s NEM is perched on the edge)
AEMO notes that ‘Australia’s NEM is perched on the edge’ in the 2023 ESOO, released today (Thu 31st Aug 2023)
AEMO (oscillating in) forecasting LOR2 in South Australia on Tuesday 27th June 2023
AEMO is currently forecasting LOR2 for South Australia next week.
AEMO commences RERT negotiations in NSW on Thursday 16th March 2023
Second post for this afternoon/evening following AEMO announcement to commence RERT Negotiations for this evening in NSW.
AEMO publishes an Update to the 2022 ESOO
On Tuesday 21st February 2023 the AEMO published an update on its 2022 ESOO.
Availability at Tarong North Power Station almost halved as it nurses a tube leak
QLD may be down 200MW of available generation with record demand currently being forecast for late this afternoon.
Quick Friday morning look-ahead to Friday evening in QLD
A quick article for Friday (3rd Feb 2023) morning, looking ahead to this evening and what AEMO’s current forecasts are saying for this evening.
Tuesday afternoon look at the (escalating) forecast for Friday 3rd February 2022 … but later the forecast LOR2 was cancelled, and then reinstated
Second article (on Tuesday 31st Jan 2023) looking forward towards a tight supply-demand balance forecast for the QLD region on Friday evening 3rd February 2023.
Substantially different than a year ago, the 2022 ESOO points to challenges ahead in the supply/demand balance
With the AEMO releasing the 2022 ESOO on Wednesday morning 31st August 2022 with the limited time I have available right now I’ve had a quick look, and in this article highlight some things that jumped out to me.
RERT may be triggered this evening – Tuesday 5th July 2022?
This morning (Tue 5th july 2022) AEMO announces it may see the need to trigger Reserve Trader this evening.
AEMO continue to watch for forecast LOR3 … e.g. MN99072 in preliminary forecast for Thu 30th June in SA
With Market Suspension possibly being lifted tomorrow morning, the flagging of forecast LOR3 in *very preliminary* ST PASA run for Thursday 30th June was of interest.