The forecast LOR2 for NSW on Thursday 29th February 2024 grows more extreme…
AEMO updated forecasts for LOR2 in NSW (and now QLD) for Thursday 29th Feb 2024 are now more severe than the earlier forecasts.
Articles by Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time.
As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.
CFA warns of ‘Catastrophic and extreme fire danger’ for parts of Victoria tomorrow (Wed 28th Feb 2024)
A short note looking at CFA warnings of ‘Extreme Bushfire Risk’ for locations in Victoria on Wednesday 28th February 2024.
Stubborn forecasts for LOR2 (low reserve condition) for NSW for Thursday evening 29th February 2024
A Tuesday morning article, looking ahead to forecasts of LOR2 (tight supply-demand balance) for NSW on Thursday evening 29th February 2024
Volatility in QLD and NSW on Monday 26th February 2024
A short record of evening volatility in Queensland and NSW on Monday 26th February 2024.
Tuesday 31st October 2023 sees the only two instances (in Q4, and all year) of AggROT for Semi-Scheduled units < -500MW
Also from GenInsights Quarterly Updates for 2023 Q4, the particular case of Tuesday 31st October 2023 is also worth sharing (and a broad audience understanding).
Large instances of collective under-performance across all Semi-Scheduled units on Sunday 24th December 2023
Returning a focus to GenInsights Quarterly Updates for 2023 Q4, here’s a particular example from Sunday 24th December 2023 worth sharing (and a broad audience understanding).
Thursday 29th February 2024 could be a (relatively) high demand day in NSW
A quick look forward (from Sun 25th Feb) towards Thursday 29th Feb 2024 in NSW
Belatedly noticing slight slippage in return to service for Callide C3
Twelve days ago there was news about a delay to return to service for Callide C3 (now to 31st March 2024), but we’d missed it.
Aggregate Dispatch Error across all Semi-Scheduled units (NEM-wide) throughout Tuesday 13th February 2024
Looking back at Tuesday 13th February 2024 there’s consistently large aggregate under-performance (compared to Target) across all Semi-Scheduled units in the NEM through daylight hours. The reason for the increased procurement of Regulation Raise.
Yo-yo prices in QLD and NSW on Friday evening 23rd February 2024
It’s Friday evening 23rd Feb 2024 and spot prices are bouncing around like crazy.
‘Market Demand’ in QLD over 10,000MW … but cooler in NSW
A short article with demand in QLD above 10,000MW
Demand climbing in NSW and QLD on Friday afternoon 23rd February 2024
Demand is climbing in both NSW and QLD regions on Friday afternoon 23rd February, off the back of hot weather.
Berrybank Wind Farms 1&2 in the 4-second data on Tuesday 13th February 2024
A short article sharing the trend of 4-second data for Berrybank 1 and Berrybank 2 Wind Farms on Tue 13th Feb 2024.
Moorabool Wind Farm in the 4-second data on Tuesday 13th February 2024
A very short article containing the 14-hour view of 4-second data for Moorabool Wind Farm on Tue 13th Feb 2024.
How fast is a trip?
Curiosity (part triggered by some conversations I noticed on social media) drove me to have a look at the implied ROCDOWN in the AEMO 4-second data for the 5 facilities (10 DUIDs) involved in rapid ramp down on Tuesday 13th February 2024.
Waubra Wind Farm starts back up – Friday morning 23rd February 2024
Good to see Waubra Wind Farm restarting this morning (Fri 23rd Feb 2024) after spending the night offline with bushfires in the area.
Waubra Wind Farm reduces to 0MW on Thu 22nd Feb 2024 … with bushfires in the area (are they related?)
At 18:00 (NEM time) on Thu 22nd Feb 2024 the Waubra Wind Farm, which was trending downwards with the wind, dropped to 0MW. Bushfires are in the area and there is a ‘Leave Now’ notice issued. Are they related?
NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’ soars to 32,921MW on Thursday 22nd February 2024
On Thursday 22nd February 2024 the NEMwide demand has reached well above 32,000MW.
Stockyard Hill Wind Farm briefly off again, on Thu 22nd February 2024 (constraints a factor)
Stockyard Hill Wind Farm, along with some other large wind farms, is constrained off in Victoria on Thursday 22nd February 2024.
Victorian ‘Market Demand’ above 9,000MW on Thursday 22nd February 2024 … for the first time since 31st January 2020
Victorian ‘Market Demand’ today (9,260MW at 15:40) is the highest we’ve seen since 31st January 2020 … just over 4 years ago.