It’s Monday 28th September 2026, which means we’ve just clocked over 10 years since the SA System Black event  (on Wednesday 28th September 2016).  Like a number of others have done, here’s our short WattClarity® note to commemorate this.

 

Looking backwards

To sum up what’s changed over that period, and a little further back, here’s almost 16 years of monthly fuel mix history via this ‘Trends Engine’ query in ez2view:

For those with a licence to the software, they can open their own copy of this query here.

 

What we’ve seen in the market includes…

In the chart we can see a large number of things, but in particular I’ve highlighted:

1)  Adding a few recent months to this ‘~28 years of history for the VIC-SA interconnector, in one chart’ trend:

(a)  we see that the South Australia continues to be a net importer from Victoria, in the majority of months.

(b)  though we also see that volumes are generally lower than they were until the end of 2017;

2)  We can see the last days of coal generation in the early part of 2016

… up until the closure of Northern Power Station

3)  We can see the rise of solar injections …

(a)  moreso rooftop PV than from Large Solar in SA (especially because of negative price curtailment for some of the solar farms).

(b)  but also note that the rooftop PV estimates from AEMO only began at a certain point in time, and are somewhat the opacity of rooftop PV  (as noted in part 1 and part 2).

4)  We can also see the price trend:

(a)  A general rise in wholesale prices (not unique to SA)

(b)  But also certain months of price extremes, such as:

i.  July 2016

ii.  January 2019 (boosted by 24th and 25th January)

iii.  May 2022, June 2022 and July 2022 (around the 2022 Energy Crisis)

iv.  July 2024 (boosted by Monday 29th July, 30th July and 31st July); and

v.  June 2025 (boosted by a number of days – including 12th June, 18th June, 26th June, 30th June etc)

5)  Also, for avoidance of doubt:

(a)  Remember that batteries are not net producers of energy … they are net consumers.

(b)  But, in the chart above:

i.  I reasoned that what was most of interest were the periods (specifically, Dispatch Intervals) of aggregate injections into the grid across whatever the BESS fleet was at the time;

ii.  So I have chosen to exclude any dispatch intervals where the batteries were, in aggregate, withdrawing from the grid (as less of interest in this high-level fuel mix overview).

iii.  I hope the annotation on the image is clear enough, in the space provided?

Other commemorations

No surprise that others are commemorating, including:

1)  Fast off the mark last Thursday 24th September was Jess Hunt with ‘Lessons from South Australia’s 2016 blackout’ in The Energy;

2)  Today (Monday 28th September 2026) to the point of publication, our team has noted:

(a)  Daniel Keane in the ABC noting ‘SA’s statewide blackout was 10 years ago — but electricity debate is still live’.

(b)  Nick O’Malley in the SMH wrote ‘Two billionaires, one online bet and a turning point for Australian energy’ to focus on one particular aspect of what followed.

3)  Since then we have seen:

(a)  Giles Parkinson noting ‘“Too much wind and solar?” The state-wide blackout and the dinner party that changed the course of history’ in RenewEconomy.

(b)  Ben Potter wrote ‘SA system black: ten years on, shifting goalposts bring new risks’ in The Energy.

(c)  And no doubt there will be (or are already) others…

 

Looking forwards

What we’re much more interested in, however, is what’s coming down the pipe.

Perhaps fitting that we’re only days away, now, from the commencement of PEC Stage 2 this Thursday 1st October 2026:

• Interconnection between SA and NSW has been decades in the making, through several incarnations:
  • including Riverlink, SANI, and Project Energy Connect
  • with Dan having documented some of this history:
    • in June 2024 in Part 1 (noting that SA Government announced a new feasibility study for an SA-NSW interconnector in June 2016, only months before the System Black)
    • and Part 2 in July 2024
• A week ahead of ‘go-live’ (last Thursday 24th September 2026), Linton noted that ‘PEC Stage 2 enters the ST timeframe’.