It was ~2 months ago that we noted that ‘three hours free power’ was commencing on Wednesday 1st July 2026 (including some cautions).
In terms of the various effects of the ‘three hours free power’:
1) Commercially?
We’ve seen a reasonable cadence of articles (and social media commentary) from others noting that, because of network tariff structures, it hardly makes sense for many energy users to pursue.
…. for instance, Petra Stock wrote ‘A new energy scheme gives Australians three hours of free power a day – but there could be an expensive catch’ in the Guardian today (Friday 28th August 2026).
Incidentally, the other day one of our long-time reminded me that we’d posed the question ‘What happens when energy is free?’ just over 10 years ago.
(a) current machinations seem to have caught up with those more far-sighted ponderings back then.
(b) Trackbacks under that article (we don’t use them anymore) point to others that readers might like to review.
2) Technically?
At some point in the coming weeks, Linton might return to take an updated look at what’s happening to system frequency immediately before, and after, the commencement of ‘free’.
… that would follow on from his pre-emptive look at ‘System frequency at 11 am in 2026’ on 25th June, which was:
(a) Before the mandated program rolled out;
(b) But after some retailers had already begun offering similar (hence the frequency effect observed even then).
This article is not a detailed statistical review, but rather just grabs this snapshot from NEMwatch at 19:25 (NEM time) on Friday 28th August 2026, which I noted in particular …
(a) because of a significant uptick in ‘Market Demand’ in Victoria just after 11:00 (NEM time)
(b) but not in any other region.
For a more focused view, here’s the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view time-travelled back to 11:30 (NEM time) today:
I don’t have time to explain more (about my hypothesis) this evening, other than the annotations on the image and these three notes:
1) Remember to click on an image to open a larger view, where you can read the numbers.
2) Remember that the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget is designed such that one can ‘look up a vertical’ in order to ‘see that other dimension of time’
3) And remember these particular nuances of Dispatch Intervals, especially:
(a) Our ‘(A first step into the complexities of) the Dispatch Interval in the Real World’; and then
(b) ‘… AEMO’s publication of the ‘NEM Dispatch Timing Fact Sheet’’.
Possibly but the free VDO is not in force yet for Victoria? Only for some market offers.
“Victoria’s version of the Solar Sharer Offer is called the Midday Power Saver, launching on October 1, 2026“
Almost certainly not Paul. If it was a three-free effect then it would be apparent on many other days. Plus as Andrew says the regulated version isn’t yet available in Victoria.
More tellingly, AEMO’s rooftop PV data for Victoria shows a 400 MW output drop occuring between half-hours 10:30-11:00 and 11:30-12:00 – most of that in the half-hour 11:00-11:30. So it’s much more likely cloud cover moving over the metro Melbourne area.