I can understand (with 5 short articles from me today and counting, making this a 6th) that some readers might wonder if I managed to get anything else done?!
- Rest assured that I did tick some other things off the list:
- although that list is very long
- so apologies to the many I have not yet responded to!
- But the curiosity itch was just too strong today… so here’s a brain twister for me.
So in a last article today, I just want to share three images from our software – but, more importantly, some questions … in the hope that some smarter readers can help me understand what’s going on, please!
First up is a snapshot from NEMwatch at 17:00 NEM time on Wednesday 19th August 2026:
With this snapshot what I want to draw your attention to is the (quite healthy) peak aggregate instantaneous wind output of 9,087MW over the past 24 hours, occurring just prior to midnight ending 18th August 2026.
Here’s that same peak in the context of the past 28 days, using a trend chart published from ez2view ‘Trends Engine’:
We see that:
- This peak surpassed the record peak from 30th May 2024
- … which was the all-time record up until about a year later
- But yesterday evening’s peak was below:
- The new (step change higher) peak from 25th July 2025
- and still lower below the (slightly higher) peak from 2nd July 2026.
UPDATE … one of our readers has pointed out it was (by their measure) record Wind Output in VIC and SA last week. Note that these trends all look NEM-wide.
Given that we’re coming to the end of winter 2026 (certainly feels that way in Brisbane, with spring-like weather now in a shortening winter) …
- I’ve been starting to think that we missed the chance for a step-change increase in record maximum wind
- And wondering why:
- Was increased curtailment a factor?
- Is it ‘just’ because the pace of new development has slowed
- Or something to do with different weather systems compared to winter 2025?
- or something else entirely?
- or most of the above?
So I’ll leave you with a 3rd chart, which is the same longer-range trend of monthly wind stats, NEM-wide … again published from ez2view ‘Trends Engine’:
I don’t have time to elaborate now (or think further) but did want to note:
- I have added in a trend (in a line) of peak monthly aggregate Wind Availability (i.e. into NEMDE … so UIGF minus when a plant might have some bid reduction via MaxAvail) … this does not show large curtailment at peak times during the peak output months
- I’ve also crudely drawn on a trend of year-to-year peak output over recent years.
Over to you, learned readers …
Thank you for your great articles. I am not very familiar with NEM operations. If I understand your question, you may wish to consider: 1) quantity effect–how much new wind capacity has been added from year to year? 2) Production effect-what is the actual generation of the marginal or incremental turbine? One theory states that the best locations are chosen first, and thus additional turbines may generate not generate so much power as earlier turbines because the best sites are already taken. 3) Curtailment for economic or technical reasons. 4) As the density of wind turbines increases, could upwind facilities extract marginally more wind energy from downwind facilities? This effect could relate to effect #2 above.
The third chart of total wind generation compiles many effects all together.
Thanks again.
Andrew