A week later, AEMO MT PASA run shows only shortfalls in South Australia

Last week (on Wednesday 5th August 2026) we noted that ‘AEMO’s MT PASA run flags shortfalls forecast for VIC and SA (but the devil is in the details)’.  In AEMO’s update at that time, it noted:

‘AEMO declares Low Reserve Conditions in accordance with clause 4.8.4 of the National Electricity Rules (NER) for the following region(s) and periods:
— July 2028 in South Australia
— July 2028 in Victoria
when forecast demand exceeds supply under some circumstances.‘

Since that time, we’ve noted some media articles pertaining to concerns about the looming closure of Yallourn in Victoria (and that some of the commentary referenced that MT PASA run).

So it’s worth contrasting the above with MN144788 published at 11:50 (NEM time) today – Tuesday 11th August 2026 – as follows:

‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 11/08/2026 11:50:17

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Notice ID : 144788
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 11/08/2026
External Reference : RESERVE NOTICE MT PASA 11 August 2026

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Reason :

The MTPASA results published on 11 August 2026 identifies annual unserved energy exceeds the Reliability Standard between:
— August 2027 – August 2028 in South Australia

AEMO declares Low Reserve Conditions in accordance with clause 4.8.4 of the National Electricity Rules (NER) for the following region(s) and periods:
— July 2028 in South Australia
when forecast demand exceeds supply under some circumstances.

This MT PASA has been updated to be consistent with the Generation Information published on 31 July 2026.

MTPASA informs the market of potential reliability issues to allow the market to respond in the first instance, potentially avoiding the need for any AEMO intervention.

For further information on MT PASA, please refer to:
https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data/Market-Management-System-MMS/Projected-Assessment-of-System-Adequacy.

For more information about how AEMO implements the reliability standard, please view the Reliability Standard Implementation Guidelines (RSIG) available on AEMO’s website at https://www.aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/nem-forecasting-and-planning/forecasting-and-reliability/reliability-standard-implementation-guidelines.

This notice supersedes Market Notice 144738 published on 4 August 2026.

Forecasting

AEMO

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END OF REPORT
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Note that Victoria in July 2028 (i.e. around the closure of Yallourn) is no longer listed as seeing forecast Low Reserve Condition (and that’s a good thing).

Understanding why the change would take more time to ascertain than we have time for at this point… but possible clues might be:

Possible Clue #1 … in the above note that ‘This MT PASA has been updated to be consistent with the Generation Information published on 31 July 2026.‘, whereas this was not noted in the Market Notice last week.

1a)  Not sure if this means last week’s run contained an earlier assessment of the plant risk

1b)  … and, if so, what specifically changed?

Possible Clue #2 … in  the Market Notice last week., there was a caveat about Project EnergyConnect Stage 2.

2a)  Not sure what’s changed in the assessment in a week, however,

2b)  … or even how PEC Stage 2 will help with transfers into Victoria.