*  Note that this article was originally framed as ‘another two bite the dust’ …

(a)  but note the confirmation in the past ~24 hours that Tasmania’s Liberty Bell Bay manganese smelter would close

(b)  that adds another to the list and we could have framed this as ‘another three bite the dust’  (albeit not discussed below)

Each have their own stories … but energy, and the energy transition touches all 3.

At Global-Roam Pty Ltd** we’ve been in operations for over 26 years now.  Hopefully with our age has come a little bit of wisdom and insight.

** In addition to our licensed software (and other) products, we’ve appreciated the opportunity to freely share some insights about what we see happening in the Australian energy sector (and sometimes internationally) via this WattClarity® service. 

We’ve not had time to do similar in 2026, but you might find these ‘Reflecting on our 25th year of service (at January 2025)’ of some relevance still.

But one of the sadder aspects of this longevity is that we’ve lasted longer than some of our clients … and in the course of a 5-day period in July we saw two clients enter Administration (thankfully that’s the only time we’ve seen two in quick succession ever happened – to my memory).

Goodbye to two market participants, recently …

We’ll briefly touch on each of the two here … but understand that these stories might still have a ways to unfold…

All-in-all, a disappointing (but understandable) state of affairs … with the QPM decision surprising me more than that for Zen Energy, where we had seen warning signs in the market much earlier.

Prompting broader thoughts …

I’m sure ‘we’re not Robinson Crusoe’ in trying to think through any broader implications of this recent development – in several dimensions.

(Q1)  Any implications for us? (at Global-Roam Pty Ltd)

Perhaps it’s an ‘elephant in the room’ for one or two of our readers, so may as well address this now?

As noted above, at Global-Roam Pty Ltd we’ve been in operations since early 2000.  Over that time, we’ve experienced quite a few significant events:

• Through broader events like the dot-com crash and the Global Financial Crisis (which delivered demand destruction and flow-on effects);
• And also a long list of more energy-specific events, such as
  • The SA System Black; and
  • The 2022 Energy Crisis
  • and so on…
• And also a list of near-misses and imagined crises.

Through these experiences we’ve consciously focused on always increasing our resilience to external (and internal) shocks … and, in most of our 26 years, have managed to grow (client numbers etc, though not necessarily team size) on a year-to-year basis.

In the light of the above (and a sense of broader challenges in this energy transition) we’re remaining vigilant of what the future might bring – but not immediately concerned

… though any news articles speaking of ‘contagion’ risk obviously spike our attention (as they would others).

(Q2)  Considerations for the broader energy transition

One can’t help noticing the dissonance behind the reasons given for the difficulties at both companies (highlighted in the headlines above):

• For Zen Energy, the headlines suggest too much volatility
• For QPM, however, one of Angela’s articles suggests not been enough volatility !

Clearly these collapses show that the current market outcomes are not a ‘Goldilocks moment’ for either organisation … and perhaps also for many other stakeholders in the energy sector.

… coincidentally, Dan Lee has just posted his latest review of Q2 prices in ‘A down year: a review of Q2 2026 spot prices’

Three technologies come immediately to mind:

Who’d be a solar farmer, indeed!

Remember that it was (relatively) a long way back when Allan posed the question ‘how good is solar farming?’ in January 2020.  Progressively since that time:

(a)  After in-train developments worked their way through, we’ve almost seen a complete cessation in the development of stand-alone solar farms.

(b)  And we’ve also seen a number of portfolios on the block for many months (perhaps even a year or two) without a successful exit.

… which, to us, loops back to Q1 above.

Where does the wind blow?

In the case of wind developments:

(a)  We’ve heard much about a ‘wind drought’ recently … in two contexts:

i.  We’ve written (along with others) about ‘wind drought’ on an operational front (such as 4 days recently in South Australia that will likely have layered on more pain to the struggling Zen Energy)

ii.  Others have also written about a drought in Final Investment Decisions for new wind farm projects

(b)  Which led some to state that ‘the ISP Step Change Scenario is divorced from reality’ …

i.  with respect to amount of wind development modelled in the 2024 ISP …

ii.  so interesting to see that the 2026 ISP has marked down those projections (though questions still remain).

Battlelines for batteries

Even with the current battery bonanza, some questions are emerging:

(a)  Seventeen months ago, Dan wrote about ‘The state-of-charge for 2024: The highs and lows of the big battery boom’, and posed some questions:

i.  First the FCAS markets became saturated:

1.   impacting more than just batteries

2.  and leading to eulogies.

ii.  But now the arbitrage pot is shrinking… (cyclical or systemic?)

(b)  More recently:

i.  Dan’s posed the question in April ‘Is the battery rollout following in solar’s footsteps — and is a battery correlation penalty looming?’

ii.  Following on from which, Franz wrote ‘Is the NEM’s battery fleet starting to compete with itself?’

The big disappointment of the Capacity Investment Scheme

Add, into the mix, the Capacity Investment Scheme, which:

(a)  was announced with much fanfare

(b)  but some might sum up* as ‘all hat, no cattle’ in terms of actually delivering capacity on the ground

On that front:

(a)  Dan’s 4-part series of articles provides a good overview of some less-than-rosy details (Part 1 and Part 2 and Part 3 and Part 4 all in Sept-Oct 2025).

(b)  With possibly more to come…