This afternoon we’ve seen an unusual burst of daylight price volatility in NSW, with the spot prices spiking in the early afternoon. The most extreme outcome was a jump to the MPC of $20,300/MWh for the 14:30 dispatch interval, followed by further elevated prices later in the hour, including $7,380.81/MWh at 14:30 and $9,199.30/MWh at 14:50.
Temperature traces for the capital cities show Sydney in the low-to-mid 30s for most of the afternoon so far, consistent with a warm summer afternoon but not obviously extreme in isolation. Satellite imagery from the afternoon shows widespread cloud coverage across large parts of NSW.
Source: ez2view’s Congestion Map widget at 14:50 NEM time.
Source: Windy at 14:40 NEM time.
Our congestion map in ez2view highlights a concentration of negative local price adjustments across much of inland and southern NSW, alongside several bound mis-pricing constraints binding during the period. These settings point to a market operating with a number of active constraints and material locational price separation.
Source: ez2view’s Congestion Map widget at 14:40 NEM time.
Our forecast convergence widget shows that P30 price forecasts for NSW this evening are shifting materially, with successive forecast runs alternately flagging elevated price risk and then backing away again. This pattern of movement suggests a degree of uncertainty in how conditions are expected to evolve later today.
Source: ez2view’s Forecast Convergence widget at 14:50 NEM time.
I was surprised by this, but as a fairly new battery owner and Amber customer benefited. Looking at Open Electricity trying to work out what might caused it, significant exports from NSW to VIC seemed to occur around this time while VIC started curtailing Wind and Solar. (I know there are a lot of other factors I can’t see and am not aware of that may have contributed.)