Volatility continues sporadically in NSW through Thursday afternoon/evening 5th February 2026

Posted by Paul McArdleThursday 5th February 2026  6:56 PM   Topic: 2026-02-05

At 15:15 (NEM time) on Thursday 5th February 2026, Dan posted about ‘Early afternoon price spikes in NSW on Thursday 5th February 2026’.

Here’s a snapshot from NEMwatch at 18:15 to highlight that volatility continued, and some of the factors:

2026-02-05-at-18-15-NEMwatch

Note the early afternoon drop in solar production from rooftop PV (due to cloud cover?) prior to the afternoon ramp up in ‘Market Demand’.

And here’s a snapshot from ez2view reminding that the ‘N-AVMN_16’ constraint set, representing the long-running outage on the Avon to Marulan (16) 330kV line (and the ‘N>>16_8_18’ constraint equation’ within it) is playing a significant role … not just in constraining flows on VIC1-NSW1 but also in dispatch within NSW:

2026-02-05-at-18-45-ez2view-AVMN

 

Tomorrow (time permitting) one of us might investigate and explain further.

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About the Author

Paul McArdle
Paul was one of the founders of Global-Roam in February 2000. He is currently the CEO of the company and the principal author of WattClarity. Writing for WattClarity has become a natural extension of his work in understanding the electricity market, enabling him to lead the team in developing better software for clients. Before co-founding the company, Paul worked as a Mechanical Engineer for the Queensland Electricity Commission in the early 1990s. He also gained international experience in Japan, the United States, Canada, the UK, and Argentina as part of his ES Cornwall Memorial Scholarship.

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