The South Australian region is experiencing a sustained period of very high spot prices this evening, with elevated regional demand coinciding with extreme heat conditions across the state. Temperatures remained close to 40°C through much of the afternoon and early evening, only easing after around 8:30 pm local time (8:00 pm NEM time) — which would be driving strong air-conditioning load despite the public holiday.
Source: ez2view’s Trend Editor
Market Demand in the region has been consistently tracking above earlier P30 forecasts through the evening peak, reaching a maximum of 3,140 MW at the 19:30 dispatch interval. Our Forecast Convergence widget screenshot below showing actual outcomes sitting noticeably above several earlier forecast vintages as the heat persisted later into the evening than initially anticipated. The peak last night came 262 MW short of the long-standing record for market demand in the region, set on the 31st of January, 2011.
Source: ez2view’s Forecast Convergence
With that backdrop, spot prices have spent much of the evening hovering near Market Price Cap (MPC) territory, with available generation in the region staying relatively flat (the yellow series in the chart below) before dropping off in the last 15 minutes at the time of writing.
Source: ez2view’s Trend Editor
At 08:42PM NEM time, the AEMO issued the market notice below, notifying an actual LOR1 condition in the region:
MARKET NOTICE 133105 ________________________________________________________________________________________________ Notice ID 133105 Notice Type ID LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3 Notice Type Description MARKET Issue Date Monday, 26 January 2026 External Reference Actual Lack Of Reserve Level 1 (LOR1) in the SA region - 26/01/2026 ________________________________________________________________________________________________ AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE Actual Lack Of Reserve Level 1 (LOR1) in the SA region - 26/01/2026 An Actual LOR1 condition has been declared under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the SA region from 2030 hrs. The Actual LOR1 condition is forecast to exist until 26/01/2026 2200 hrs The capacity reserve requirement is 654 MW The minimum capacity reserve available is 447 MW Manager NEM Real Time Operations
We’ll look to dig further into the underlying conditions and drivers of these outcomes — including supply availability and interconnector conditions — if time permits in the coming days.
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