Low, but not that low … ‘Market Demand’ in VIC and SA on Thursday 1st January 2026

Posted by Paul McArdleThursday 1st January 2026  1:50 PM   Topic: 2026-01-01

Given the earlier articles about Thursday 1st January 2026, worth a short note with a NEMwatch snapshot at 13:35 NEM time, marking the lowest points reached for ‘Market Demand’ in both VIC and SA today:

2026-01-01-at-13-35-NEMwatch

In both those regions, and on a NEM-wide basis, the ‘Market Demand’ has begun to climb slowly into the afternoon … so these low points might be the lowest seen today (and still a margin above the all-time minimums)

 

Highlighted on the image are the two Market Notices speaking about ‘Minimum System Load’ alerts for both regions:

MN 132356

speaking to ‘actual MSL2’ in South Australia

 MN 132355

speaking to ‘actual MSL1’ in Victoria
——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-

From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     01/01/2026     12:00:40

——————————————————————-

Notice ID               :         132356
Notice Type ID          :         MINIMUM SYSTEM LOAD
Notice Type Description :         MSL1/MSL2/MSL3
Issue Date              :         01/01/2026
External Reference      :        Actual Minimum System Load MSL2 condition in the SA Region on 01/01/2026

——————————————————————-

Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
Actual Minimum System Load MSL2 condition in the SA Region on 01/01/2026

AEMO has detected that there is an elevated risk of insufficient demand to maintain a secure operating state in the SA on 01/01/2026.

Minimum demand is forecast to be -230 MW at 1330 hrs, and the advisory threshold is:
– MSL1  34 MW
– MSL2  -117 MW
– MSL3  -468 MW

The demand is below the MSL2  threshold. The actual MSL2  condition is forecast to exist until 1400 hrs.

Forecast demand refers to forecast Operational Demand that excludes contribution from Significant Non-Scheduled Generation: see definitions at https://aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/operational-demand-data .

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-

 ——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-

From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     01/01/2026     12:09:06

——————————————————————-

Notice ID               :         132355
Notice Type ID          :         MINIMUM SYSTEM LOAD
Notice Type Description :         MSL1/MSL2/MSL3
Issue Date              :         01/01/2026
External Reference      :         Actual Minimum System Load MSL1 condition in the VIC Region on 01/01/2026

——————————————————————-

Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
Actual Minimum System Load MSL1 condition in the VIC Region on 01/01/2026

Update to Market Notice 132340 – AEMO has detected that there is an elevated risk of insufficient demand to maintain a secure operating state in the VIC on 01/01/2026.

Minimum demand is forecast to be 1620 MW at 1130 hrs, and the advisory threshold is:
MSL1  1760MW
MSL2  1260 MW
MSL3   760 MW

The demand is below the MSL1  threshold. The actual MSL1  condition is forecast to exist until 1530 hrs.

Forecast demand refers to forecast Operational Demand that excludes contribution from Significant Non-Scheduled Generation: see definitions at https://aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/operational-demand-data .

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-
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About the Author

Paul McArdle
Paul was one of the founders of Global-Roam in February 2000. He is currently the CEO of the company and the principal author of WattClarity. Writing for WattClarity has become a natural extension of his work in understanding the electricity market, enabling him to lead the team in developing better software for clients. Before co-founding the company, Paul worked as a Mechanical Engineer for the Queensland Electricity Commission in the early 1990s. He also gained international experience in Japan, the United States, Canada, the UK, and Argentina as part of his ES Cornwall Memorial Scholarship.

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