Warnings of possible LOR3 (i.e. Load Shedding) for Mon 16th and Mon 17th December 2024 cancelled … at least in (large) part due to delay in Outage on Line 17

At 13:06 NEM time the AEMO published MN121831 and 121833 noting the cancellation of the forecast LOR3 that was in place for both Monday 16th December 2024 and Tuesday 17th December 2024.

 

No need to copy them in here, but (for anyone who read the clues earlier) they’ll not be surprised that the ‘N-X_AVMA_KCTX’ constraint set has been pushed back by ~48 hours.  We see this in the ‘Constraint Sets’ widget snapshot below at 13:10:

2024-12-13-at-13-10-ez2view-ConstraintSets

For what it’s worth, here’s the updated ‘Constraint Set Details’ widget for the ‘N-X_AVMA_KCTX’ constraint set (at 13:20 NEM time), so you can read specific times:

2024-12-13-at-13-20-ez2view-ConstraintSetDetails-N-X_AVMA_KCTX

 

Important for readers to understand that, whilst the forecast load shedding has abated, the forecast demand is still quite high on Monday 16th December 2024 (for NSW, VIC and NEM-wide) so it’s likely there’ll be some market action on that day, and the day following in NSW.

For instance, some (lower level) LORx conditions remain forecasted for NSW for both days (and VIC on Monday) – as we see here in this ‘Forecast Convergence’ collage from ez2view at 13:20 NEM time:

2024-12-13-at-13-20-ez2view-ForecastConvergence-LOR


About the Author

Paul McArdle
Paul was one of the founders of Global-Roam in February 2000. He is currently the CEO of the company and the principal author of WattClarity. Writing for WattClarity has become a natural extension of his work in understanding the electricity market, enabling him to lead the team in developing better software for clients. Before co-founding the company, Paul worked as a Mechanical Engineer for the Queensland Electricity Commission in the early 1990s. He also gained international experience in Japan, the United States, Canada, the UK, and Argentina as part of his ES Cornwall Memorial Scholarship.

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