Price volatility from yesterday evening and this morning has returned this afternoon in NSW, where forecasted high prices have begun to eventuate.
The first price spike occurred at the 15:40 dispatch interval where the NSW RRP spiked to $13,907.62/MWh. The screenshot below has been taken from our ez2view software and shows a schematic of generation in NSW at the time of this first price spike, when market demand (a.k.a total demand) was 7,881MW.
Schematic of NSW generation at the 15:40 dispatch interval.
Source: ez2view’s NSW Schematic widget
Through our forecast convergence widget shown below, we can see that the AEMO P5 data is forecasting prices at or near the market cap in NSW for much of the next hour.
NSW Price forecast convergence as at the 15:40 dispatch interval. The left most column is showing actuals, and each row represents a prior interval.
Source: ez2view’s Forecast Convergence widget
A similar view shows that spillover into QLD and/or VIC is not forecasted at the time of writing.
Our generator outages widget shown in the screenshot below reads that Eraring Unit 3 (750MW) and Eraring Unit 2 (750MW) are marked as having outages today, whilst I also note Vales Point Unit 6 (680MW), Tallwara B Unit 1 (320MW), and Eraring Unit 4 (750MW) are marked as having forced deratings also.
View of outages in NSW as at the 15:40 dispatch interval.
Source: ez2view’s Generator Outages widget
More to follow.
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