This morning I posted about ‘Stubborn forecasts for LOR2 (low reserve condition) for NSW for Thursday evening 29th February 2024’ and included text from AEMO Market Notice 115201 published at 10:17:34 this morning.
However the situation is worse than that – as (at 10:58:37) the AEMO published an update via MN115204 as follows:
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MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 27/02/2024 10:58:37
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Notice ID : 115204
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 27/02/2024
External Reference : STPASA – Update of the Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the NSW Region on 29/02/2024
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Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
The Forecast LOR2 condition in the NSW region advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 115201 has been updated at 1000 hrs 27/02/2024 to the following:
From 1430 hrs 29/02/2024 to 2130 hrs 29/02/2024.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 1341 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 0 MW.
AEMO is seeking a market response.
AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.
AEMO Operations
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END OF REPORT
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… so with a minimum capacity reserve available of 0MW, that would have to be very close to forecast LOR3 (i.e. forecasts for load shedding).
Almost simultaneously the AEMO had published MN115203 noting also forecasts for LOR2 in QLD:
‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 27/02/2024 10:57:33
——————————————————————-
Notice ID : 115203
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 27/02/2024
External Reference : STPASA – Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the QLD Region on 29/02/2024
——————————————————————-
Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
AEMO declares a Forecast LOR2 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the QLD region for the following period:
From 1730 hrs to 2000 hrs 29/02/2024.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 745 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 336 MW.
AEMO is seeking a market response.
AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.
AEMO Operations
——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-’
Remember that Thursday 29th February 2024 had been (until updates on Tue 13th Feb 2024) when the Callide C3 unit had been slated to return. Looks like it will be sorely missed…
PS1 updated LOR2 forecasts for QLD at 13:00
PS the Market Notice 115203 for QLD above was updated at 13:00:54 as follows:
——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-
From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 27/02/2024 13:00:54
——————————————————————-
Notice ID : 115208
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 27/02/2024
External Reference : STPASA – Update of the Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the QLD Region on 29/02/2024
——————————————————————-
Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
The Forecast LOR2 condition in the QLD region advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 115203 has been updated at 1200 hrs 27/02/2024 to the following:
From 1730 hrs to 2000 hrs 29/02/2024.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 771 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 578 MW.
AEMO is seeking a market response.
AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.
AEMO Operations
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END OF REPORT
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… so not quite as tight (at least in QLD) as noted in the 11:00 updates.
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