QLD ‘Market Demand’ accelerating past 9,200MW … forecast (at 14:25) to reach 10,523MW at 17:30

A quick update, with this snapshot from NEMwatch at 14:20 highlighting that ‘Market Demand’ is at 9,224MW for the QLD region (well into the ‘orange zone’), and accelerating upwards:

Also timely to take a look at the latest AEMO forecasts for later today in QLD – with this view of a collage of 4 x ‘Forecast Convergence’ widgets in ez2view at 14:30 today:

On the left, we see three different chart views, highlighting that (at least for now) both ‘Market Demand’ and Available Generation are following AEMO’s earlier P5 predispatch forecasts, 55 minutes out.  Prices are jumping around a bit more – could be for several reasons, including:

1)  The impact of constraints; and

2)  The impact of rebidding.

… but still no sky-high prices today (yet?!)

On the right we see a tabular view of AEMO’s P30 predispatch data … which now extends out until 04:00 NEM time on Wed 24th Jan 2024, but which I’ve zoomed in to focus on Monday evening 22nd Jan 2024.  ‘Looking up a vertical’ we see that:

1)  Forecasts have been trending upwards over the period shown (with a slight drop between the forecasts provided in the 14:00 run and the forecasts provided in the 14:30 run);

2)  We’re now back to seeing forecast above 10,000MW for 3 1/2 hours this evening

3)  With (based on current forecast) peak ‘Market Demand’ up at 10,523MW in the half-hour ending 17:30.

Forecast LOR2 (low reserve condition) is back

Whilst finishing off this article, we noted Market Notice 123602 warning of the re-emergence of a forecast LOR2 for this evening:

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MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 22/01/2024 14:26:55

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Notice ID : 113602
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 22/01/2024
External Reference : PDPASA – Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the QLD Region on 22/01/2024

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Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

AEMO declares a Forecast LOR2 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the QLD region for the following Period:

[1.] From 1830 hrs 22/01/2024 to 1900 hrs 22/01/2024.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 631 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 583 MW.

AEMO is seeking a market response.

AEMO estimates the latest time at which it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event is 1430 hrs on 22/01/2024.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

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END OF REPORT
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