AEMO briefly forecasts LOR3 (i.e. load shedding) in QLD on Thu 1st Feb 2024

Worth a short article on Monday morning 29th January 2024 looking forward to Thursday this week 1st February 2024 because the latest ST PASA runs are forecasting LOR3 (i.e. load shedding) in QLD for several periods in the day.

Here’s a snapshot from the 3 x ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget window in ez2view at the 09:25 highlighting how these warnings have just popped up.

The AEMO has also just published (at 09:17 NEM time) Market Notice MN113958 about this as follows:

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MARKET NOTICE
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From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     29/01/2024     09:17:19

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Notice ID               :         113958
Notice Type ID          :         RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date              :         29/01/2024
External Reference      :         STPASA – Suspect Lack Of Reserve Level 3 (LOR3) in the QLD Region on 01/02/2024

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Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

AEMO considers that there are suspect Forecast LOR3 conditions for the QLD region for the following periods:

1. From 0900 hrs to 1000 hrs 01/02/2024.
The maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 38 MW at 0930 hrs.

2. From 1130 hrs to 1200 hrs 01/02/2024.
The maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 62 MW at 1130 hrs.

AEMO is currently investigating these LOR3 forecast conditions to confirm whether they are valid.

AEMO Operations

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END OF REPORT
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Remembering that the AEMO’s forecast process (including ST PASA) is designed to elicit a market response, it’s likely that load shedding won’t eventuate … but it does still indicate that Thursday could be interesting.

We’ll watch this with interest!

PS1 already been downgraded to forecast LOR2

In the next update of the ST PASA data (1 hour later) these forecasts are already downgraded to forecast LOR2 … but still will watch with interest.

PS2 more information in MN113961

Further to the above, Market Notice 113961 provided some context:

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MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 29/01/2024 10:15:51

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Notice ID : 113961
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 29/01/2024
External Reference : STPASA – Suspect Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the QLD Region on 01/02/2024

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Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

AEMO considers that there are suspect Forecast LOR2 conditions for the QLD region for the following periods:

1. From 0800 hrs to 1000 hrs 01/02/2024.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 188 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 123 MW.

2. From 1130 hrs to 1200 hrs 01/02/2024.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 177 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 119 MW.

AEMO is currently investigating these LOR2 forecast conditions to confirm whether they are valid.

This market notice overrides the suspect LOR3 conditions advised in market notice 113958.

AEMO Operations

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END OF REPORT
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