Whilst being a bit ‘once bitten and twice shy’ with respect to Monday’s mistaken warning of possible load shedding in QLD for next Monday 6th June, I did happen to notice this afternoon two Market Notices in quick succession forecasting tight supply-demand balance for both QLD and NSW for this Thursday 2nd June 2022:
Here they are:
| NSW Region Market Notice 96686 published 16:42 Tuesday 31st May |
QLD Region Market Notice 96687 published 16:43 Tuesday 31st May |
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| ——————————————————————- MARKET NOTICE ——————————————————————-From : AEMO To : NEMITWEB1 Creation Date : 31/05/2022 16:42:13——————————————————————- Notice ID : 96686 ——————————————————————- Reason : AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE The Forecast LOR2 condition in the NSW region advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 96666 has been updated at 1600 hrs 31/05/2022 to the following: 1. From 1700 hrs to 2100 hrs 02/06/2022. 2. From 1730 hrs to 1800 hrs 06/06/2022. 3. From 1730 hrs to 1800 hrs 07/06/2022. 4. From 1830 hrs to 1900 hrs 07/06/2022. AEMO is seeking a market response. AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event. AEMO Operations ——————————————————————-
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——————————————————————- MARKET NOTICE ——————————————————————-From : AEMO To : NEMITWEB1 Creation Date : 31/05/2022 16:43:02——————————————————————- Notice ID : 96687 ——————————————————————- Reason : AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE The Forecast LOR2 condition in the QLD region advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 96668 has been updated at 1600 hrs 31/05/2022 to the following: 1. From 1730 hrs to 2000 hrs 02/06/2022. 2. From 1830 hrs to 1900 hrs 07/06/2022. AEMO is seeking a market response. AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event. AEMO Operations ——————————————————————-
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These notices talk about Thursday 2nd June (NSW and QLD), but also Monday 6th June (NSW only) and Tuesday 7th June (NSW and QLD). I’ve highlighted the Thursday evening period, which is currently forecasted to be tightest of the bunch … across both regions!
Opening up this pre-prepared NEM-wide trend in ez2view online, we can clearly see why it’s forecast to be tight in QLD and NSW on Thursday:
Indeed, in this NEM-wide trend, it does not look like there’s too much spare capacity (with demand forecast to be well above 30,000MW) anywhere across the NEM! Note also the substantial drop in wind harvest forecast for Thursday evening (well away from this morning’s all time maximum).
We’ll watch that with keen interest (and you should be able to, as well, with a live updating version of this trend here)!
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