AEMO issues LOR2 warning for South Australia for next Thursday, 31st May

Worth a quick note today that I see via NEM-Watch that AEMO issued a Market Notice yesterday (Thu 24th May) looking forward to Thursday next week (31st May) warning that they were currently seeing a Low Reserve Condition at the LOR2 level noting insufficient reserves currently forecast for the South Australian Region.

Here’s the Notice appearing in the NEM-Watch screen this afternoon:

Here’s the full text of the notice:

We see the LOR2-level Low Reserve Condition is forecast for Thursday morning, and Thursday evening – with the Capacity Reserve forecast to drop down to a measly 3MW.

Using a web-widget trend created in Trend Editor within ez2view we take a look at more detail of what’s in AEMO’ current ST PASA run as at 12:44 today (i.e. a run updated since the Market Notice was issued yesterday at 17:09), and see that Thursday sees forecast drop-off in wind harvest through the day, picking up a little through the evening:

Our ez2view clients can access a live updating copy of this trend here.  Our ez2view clients could also use “Forecast Convergence” to see how these numbers change over the coming week with successive forecasts, and as participants (AEMO hopes) adjust their outage plans.

We might return to this (as time permits) next week to see what market response there has been…