AEMO updated MT PASA guidance, on 2nd December 2025

Almost exactly 2 months ago (on Saturday 4th October) we noted ‘AEMO updated MT PASA guidance, on 3rd October 2025’ for several reasons, including those noted here:

Well, today the AEMO published MN131337 as an update on the above as follows:

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MARKET NOTICE
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From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     02/12/2025     13:55:57

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Notice ID               :         131337
Notice Type ID          :         RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date              :         02/12/2025
External Reference      :         RESERVE NOTICE MT PASA 2 December 2025

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Reason :

The MTPASA results published on 2 December 2025 identify annual unserved energy exceeding the Reliability Standard between:
— December 2026 – December 2027 in New South Wales.

AEMO declares Low Reserve Conditions in accordance with clause 4.8.4 of the National Electricity Rules for the following region(s) and period(s):
— August 2027 – November 2027 in New South Wales
when forecast demand exceeds supply under some circumstances.

MTPASA informs the market of potential reliability issues to allow the market to respond in the first instance, potentially avoiding the need for any AEMO intervention.

For further information on MT PASA, please refer to:
https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data/Market-Management-System-MMS/Projected-Assessment-of-System-Adequacy.

For more information about how AEMO implements the reliability standard, please view the Reliability Standard Implementation Guidelines (RSIG) available on AEMO’s website at https://www.aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/nem-forecasting-and-planning/forecasting-and-reliability/reliability-standard-implementation-guidelines.

This notice supersedes Market Notice 130930 published on 25 November 2025.

Forecasting

AEMO

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END OF REPORT
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With respect to the update 2 months ago:

1)  The earlier concerns about Low Reserve Conditions in South Australia have been managed by the delayed closure of Torrens (as noted 2 months ago);

2)  The forecast Low Reserve Conditions forecast for NSW in the period August 2027 to November 2027 persist.

…. which are relevant to considerations about the possible closure of Eraring Power Station.