The start of the unplanned outage at ER03 is delayed till early Saturday morning 27th September 2025

Yesterday afternoon we noted that ‘ER03 now (again) slated to come offline early Thursday morning 25th September 2025’ … and that, at least in part as a result, the ‘AEMO notes possible early-morning direction in NSW on Thursday 25th September 2025’.

As a short follow-on article now mid-morning Thursday 25th September 2025 it’s worth including this updated snapshot of the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view at the 10;10 dispatch interval (NEM time) as follows:

With this widget:

1)  Remember that the ‘Grid’ view in ‘Forecast Convergence’ allows one to ‘look up a vertical’ in order to see ‘that other dimension of time’;

2)  With the widget now having more functionality to delve into unit availability* in the new PD/ST PASA timeframe, due to the new PDPASA/STPASA data published by AEMO from 31st July 2025

* even for Semi-Scheduled assets
(a)  hurrah (at least in PD/ST PASA),
(b)  albeit not yet in MT PASA DUID Availability!

3)  We see that the key change was made prior to the 20:00 data update from the AEMO, to push back the start date of the outage at ER03 until the early hours of Saturday morning 27th September 2025 .

This will have been a key driver in AEMO’s then issuing MN129282 at 20:09 yesterday as follows:

‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-

From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     24/09/2025     20:09:16

——————————————————————-

Notice ID               :         129282
Notice Type ID          :         MARKET INTERVENTION
Notice Type Description :         Reserve Contract / Direction / Instruction
Issue Date              :         24/09/2025
External Reference      :         Cancellation – Foreseeable intervention to manage system strength in NSW region 24/09/2025

——————————————————————-

Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

Cancellation – Foreseeable intervention to manage system strength in NSW region 24/09/2025

Refer Market Notice 129279

AEMO no longer foresees a possible requirement for intervention to manage system strength  in NSW region. The advice of possible intervention is cancelled from 2000 hrs 24/09/2025.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-’

… and then also MN129283 at 20:48 as follows:

‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-

From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     24/09/2025     20:48:52

——————————————————————-

Notice ID               :         129283
Notice Type ID          :         RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date              :         24/09/2025
External Reference      :         PDPASA – Cancellation of the Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 1 (LOR1) in the NSW Region on 25/09/2025

——————————————————————-

Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

The Forecast LOR1 condition in the NSW region advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 129277 is cancelled at 2030 hrs 24/09/2025.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-’

That’s all for now…