MT PASA shows forecast Low Reserve Conditions in both NSW (Aug-Sept 2027) and SA (Dec 2026 to March 2027)

Four weeks ago, we noted how ‘Following the 2025 ESOO, MT PASA shows forecast Low Reserve Conditions in the South Australian region (Dec 2026 to March 2027)’.

At least in part because the full 2-year MT PASA window has rolled forwards another 4 weeks since that time (but perhaps not wholly because of this) the latest MT PASA update now also features forecast tight supply-demand balance in NSW, as follows:

‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 23/09/2025 13:30:57

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Notice ID : 129239
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 23/09/2025
External Reference : RESERVE NOTICE MT PASA 23 September 2025

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Reason :

The MTPASA results published on 23 September 2025 identify annual unserved energy exceeding the Reliability Standard between:
— September 2026 – September 2027 in South Australia.
— September 2026 – September 2027 in New South Wales.

AEMO declares Low Reserve Conditions in accordance with clause 4.8.4 of the National Electricity Rules for the following region(s) and period(s):
— December 2026 – March 2027 in South Australia
— August 2027 – September 2027 in New South Wales
when forecast demand exceeds supply under some circumstances.

MTPASA informs the market of potential reliability issues to allow the market to respond in the first instance, potentially avoiding the need for any AEMO intervention.

For further information on MT PASA, please refer to:
https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data/Market-Management-System-MMS/Projected-Assessment-of-System-Adequacy.

For more information about how AEMO implements the reliability standard, please view the Reliability Standard Implementation Guidelines (RSIG) available on AEMO’s website at https://www.aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/nem-forecasting-and-planning/forecasting-and-reliability/reliability-standard-implementation-guidelines .

This notice supersedes Market Notice 129085 published on 16 September 2025.

Forecasting

AEMO

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END OF REPORT
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Note that I have not checked the earlier (intervening) updates (on Tuesday 16th September and Tuesday 9th September and Tuesday 2nd September) to see exactly when these changes came about.

With respect to the forecast tight supply-demand balance in NSW, expect that to put even more pressure on the NSW Government and Origin Energy to (again) delay the mooted closure of Eraring Power Station.