A look at forecasts for SA this Wednesday evening 9th July 2025, where forecast LOR2 conditions are appearing

In this short post, we’ll look at several of the overarching factors currently at play in South Australia, where a forecast LOR2 condition is now emerging—and expanding—for the evening of Wednesday, 9th July.

The graphic below shows the evolving forecast for LOR1 (yellow) and LOR2 (orange) conditions in South Australia over the past three days and the next three days.

The range of forecast LOR conditions for SA over the past three days, and coming 3 days. 

Columns represent point in time, rows represent the recency of the forecast. STPASA forecasts are made each hour.

Source: ez2view’s Forecast Convergence widget

This emerging situation is reminiscent of what we saw in the region early last week (namely, on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday). To provide an update on the situation, we’ll take a look at the forecast convergence for demand and VRE generation in the region, before taking an updated look at the constraint invocation schedule.

Demand Forecast Convergence

We’ll first look at the market demand outlook for SA. The chart below highlights a high level of forecast uncertainty, with ST PASA projections for Wednesday evening showing a wide spread.

Range of forecasts for market demand over the past two days (left of the central vertical dotted line) and next six days (right of the vertical dotted line).

Source: ez2view’s Forecast Convergence widget

Semi-Scheduled Solar and Wind UIGF Forecast

Next, we examine forecast uncertainty in semi-scheduled VRE in the two forecast convergence views for the Solar and Wind UIGF for the region.

The range for UIGF forecasts made for SA semi-scheduled wind (top) and solar (bottom) over the past week, and the week ahead.

Source: ez2view’s Forecast Convergence widget

Similarly to the earlier chart for demand, this forecast range for wind and solar gives a sense of the weather uncertainty in the lead-up to Wednesday evening.

Constraint Set Invocation Schedule

Looking at the constraint set invocation schedule for the coming week, we see the return of a few familiar IDs from last week (which are expected to remain in place until Sunday, July 13th).

Constraint sets currently scheduled to be invoked this coming week in SA.

Source: ez2view’s Scheduled Constraint Sets widget

In the screenshot, we also see the S-HVMG constraint set being invoked from today and the S-WE_MWP4 set being invoked from Wednesday morning. The former is related to an outage of the Happy Valley-Magill 275 kV line and latter is related to an outage of the Morgan Whyalla PS 4-Waterloo East 132kV line.