Reintroduction of ‘forecast LOR2’ for QLD for Friday 24th January 2025, with strengthening forecast for ‘Market Demand’

We’ve already noted how yesterday (Wednesday 22nd January 2025) saw a new ratchet up in the ‘all time maximum’ level of ‘Market Demand’ in the QLD region.

Following from that, yesterday evening Dan Lee took at look at forecast demand in QLD for tomorrow (Friday 24th January 2025) and noted that:

‘We can see the forecasts for Friday continue to moderate. The current STPASA run from 8pm (NEM time) this evening projects market demand in QLD to be 10,851 MW for 17:30 on Friday.

We will be keeping a keen eye on this widget over the next 48 hours.’

So here’s an update of the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget view in ez2view at the 13:50 dispatch interval (NEM time) on Thursday 23rd January 2025:

In contrast to what Dan saw in AEMO forecasts ~16 hours ago, we see the more recent view suggests a possible strengthening of forecast ‘Market Demand’ – and, with that, the return of ‘forecast LOR2’ conditions.  This was noted in MN123625 at 13:24 (i.e. ~30 minutes ago):

‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
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From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     23/01/2025     13:24:08

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Notice ID               :         123625
Notice Type ID          :         RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date              :         23/01/2025
External Reference      :         PDPASA – Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the QLD Region on 24/01/2025

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Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

AEMO declares a Forecast LOR2 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the QLD region for the following Period:

[1.] From 1800 hrs 24/01/2025 to 1930 hrs 24/01/2025.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 816 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 572 MW.

AEMO is seeking a market response.

AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time at which it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

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END OF REPORT
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