When I wrote ‘It’s back! Forecast LOR3 for NSW on Monday 26th November 2024’ on Wednesday, I did note that we were not going to religiously post articles at each update of the AEMO forecasts. Rather, we provided some tips via ‘Here’s a few things to watch, w.r.t. the forecast tight supply-demand balance in NSW (and QLD) for early next week’.
In the >36 hours since that article on Wednesday there have been a number of cycles – but most importantly we note that the forecasts for LORx on Tuesday 26th November 2024 have been less strident in recent times … with the downwards progression in severity highlighted here in a snapshot from the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view at 09:35 on Friday 22nd November 2024:
There are essentially two step changes downwards in the forecasts for LORx for next Tuesday, as noted here (all times in NEM time):
Step Change Down #1 – between 12:00 and 13:00
We see above that these are the two runs that straddle the step change down from forecast LOR3 (in the run for 12:00) and the forecast LOR2 (in the run for 13:00).
As Allan noted in this comment here yesterday afternoon, it appears that the AEMO did indeed remove its permission for the line 17 outage :
1) which was reflected in the ‘N-X_11_17’ constraint set.
2) which relates to an outage on the Dapto-Sydney South (11) 330kV line* and Avon-Macarthur (17) 330kV line;
* noting that the line 11 is already out in the the ‘N-DTSS_11’ constraint set
3) This change appears to have been made at 12:48 on Thursday 21st November 2024.
PS1 … update with more detail
Initially it appeared yesterday that the outage had not just been deferred … i.e. it appeared that the outage had been totally cancelled (in terms of assessment for invocation at some future point in time). One might think of this, perhaps, in terms of ‘back to the drawing board’ in terms of whatever work TransGrid was planning to do on that line with summer fast approaching?
However in an update at 08:55 on Friday 22nd November 2024, it appears that the outage has been re-submitted:
1) With the new plan being:
(a) Outage starts from 05:00 on Wednesday 27th November 2024;
(b) Outage ends 17:00 on Saturday 30th November 2024.
2) Though this appears not to have been approved yet?
Step Change Down #2 – between 22:00 and 23:00
We see above that these are the two runs that straddle the step change down from forecast LOR2 (in the run for 22:00) and the forecast LOR1 (in the run for 23:00).
Now, there may well have been other changes, but it was easy to find this step change increase in forecast Wind UIGF for NSW for Tuesday afternoon/evening 26th November 2024 (i.e. increasing by ~500MW to ~1,000MW) that would have been one contributing factor:
… but remember what comes down (i.e. forecast LORx) can also go up, so keep watching this space.
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