Forecast ‘Minimum System Load’ (at MSL1 level) back again, for Saturday 12th October 2024

There’s been a bit of yo-yo-ing with the AEMO warnings for ‘Minimum System Load’ pertaining to today (Saturday 12th October 2024) and tomorrow (Sunday 13th October 2024), as explained below.  But firstly, note that they have always been at MSL1 level and never progressed to MSL2:

On Monday this week (7th October 2024) we noted that ‘AEMO forecasts ‘Minimum System Load’ (at MSL1 level) for VIC on Saturday 12th and Sunday 13th October 2024’, with reference to the coming weekend.

With respect to the warning for Sunday 13th October 2024, we’ve previously recorded that:

1)  the warning was cancelled on Wednesday 9th October,

2)  but then reinstated on Thursday afternoon 10th October.

3)  Also, we see MN 118809 (at 11:04, a little after this article was published today) reiterating/updating the MSL1 warning.

With respect to the warning for today (Saturday 12th October 2024), in this article we note that:

1)  It was cancelled yesterday (Friday 11th October 2024) with MN118775 published at 14:47

2)  But, at 06:19 this morning (Saturday 12th October 2024) the AEMO published Market Notice 118803 re-instating the warning as follows:

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MARKET NOTICE
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From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     12/10/2024     06:19:33

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Notice ID               :         118803
Notice Type ID          :         MINIMUM SYSTEM LOAD
Notice Type Description :         MSL1/MSL2/MSL3
Issue Date              :         12/10/2024
External Reference      :         Forecast Minimum System Load 1 (MSL1) in the VIC Region on 12/10/2024

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Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

AEMO has detected that there is an elevated risk of insufficient demand to maintain a secure operating state in the Victorian region from 1230 hrs 12/10/2024 to 1330 hrs 12/10/2024.

Minimum regional demand is forecast to be 1585 MW at 1300 hrs, and the advisory threshold is:
o    MSL1 – 1605 MW
o    MSL2 – 1105 MW
o    MSL3 – 605 MW

MSL events are forecast when forecast regional demand is less than the relevant MSL threshold. The forecast regional demand is below the MSL1 threshold.

AEMO Operations

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END OF REPORT
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