Already this morning we have posted two articles:
1) With ez2view snapshots from 05:35, we posted ‘Low, getting lower … AEMO’s forecasts for ‘Market Demand’ on Saturday 28th September 2024’; and then
2) We posted ‘Updated long-term trend of Victorian minimum demand’ to show how low the forecasts were for Saturday 28th September 2024 in the context of history.
Since that time we’ve had a window of ez2view open with the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget updating in real time, looking at successive forecasts from AEMO for ‘Market Demand’ in Victoria for tomorrow. Here’s a zoomed in view of how it currently looks:
Remembering this widget allows the user to ‘look up a vertical’ in order to see ‘that other dimension of time’, we can see that the forecast for ‘Market Demand’ in Victoria at 12:00 tomorrow (NEM time) in the forecast run at 10:00 this morning was that it would be 1,420MW:
1) and that this was also the case in the run produced at 09:00 as well;
2) the forecast AEMO publishes for 11:00 has not yet arrived, so we’ll be interesting to see whether (and how) it has changed.
But, no real surprise that (at 10:55) the AEMO updates its ‘Minimum System Load’ warning for Victoria for tomorrow via MN118475:
‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 27/09/2024 10:55:57
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Notice ID : 118475
Notice Type ID : MINIMUM SYSTEM LOAD
Notice Type Description : MSL1/MSL2/MSL3
Issue Date : 27/09/2024
External Reference : Minimum System Load 1 (MSL1) in the VIC Region on 28/09/2024
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Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
Update to Market Notice 118421.
AEMO has detected that there is an elevated risk of insufficient demand to maintain a secure operating state in the Victorian region from 1030 hrs to 1430 hrs 28/09/2024.
Minimum regional demand is forecast to be 1420 MW at 1200 hrs, and the advisory threshold is:
– MSL1 – 1865 MW
– MSL2 – 1365 MW
– MSL3 – 865 MW
MSL events are forecast when forecast regional demand is less than the relevant MSL threshold. The forecast regional demand is below the MSL1 threshold.
Refer to NEM Data Dashboard to monitor demand levels: https://aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/data-dashboard-nem
AEMO is seeking a market response.
An insufficient market response may require AEMO to take action or intervene to maintain power system security in Victoria. This may result in action such as the direction of scheduled production units, curtailment of non-scheduled production units, and/or a direction to maintain regional demand above required MSL threshold, in both Victoria and South Australia.
AEMO Operations
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END OF REPORT
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Stay tuned for more …
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