Wind yield drops again, prices rise in VIC, SA and TAS … and gas-fired generation is running strong

It’s been a busy week in energy thus far … including (it seems, eavesdropping in from outside!) at sessions like ‘Australian Energy Week‘.

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Accompanying the prognostications in places such as those, there’s been a number of things to observe in day-to-day dispatch in the NEM.

For instance, continuing the focus on the very mixed results for wind through April and May:

1)   There’s been another burst of strong wind yield lasting ~2 days from the afternoon of 10th June into the afternoon of Wednesday 12th June (reaching ~7,000MW over a 12-hour period)

2)  However that’s faded away again – as a result of which Thursday morning 13th June we’ve dropped under 1,000MW NEM-wide currently.

We can see this, and many other things, in this snapshot of NEMwatch here at 08:25 this morning:

With respect to the annotations:

1)  Wind yield is particularly low in TAS, VIC and SA this morning … but also quite low in NSW and QLD

2)  In contrast, it jumps out to me that Large Solar in QLD is performing strongly even at 08:25 on a winter’s morning (rooftop PV suffers more of a lag in rising each morning).

3)  Partly as a result of the low wind yield, three’s plenty of gas-fired generation powering away:

(a)  Particularly in VIC and SA;

(b)  But perhaps most notably in TAS … (and particularly noting Tamar Valley CCGT running for the first time in >5 years).

4)  Prices in those gas-firing regions are elevated well beyond the old $300/MWh ASX cap trigger price level;

5)  Also notable that the demand in TAS (being the last remaining winter peaking region … at least at this time, until it reverses) are quite elevated …

(a)  ‘Market Demand’ shown as 1,612MW

(b)  Well into the orange zone, compared to an all-time maximum of 1,781MW (also shown on NEMwatch).

6)  Being winter now, we’re seeing an increased incidence of ‘forecast LORx’ Market Notices from the AEMO for various regions.

 

That’s all for now…